King's Bruton Sixth Former predicts exact outcome of American election

Published by King's School Bruton on Wednesday 16th of January 2013

The result of the American presidential election was always going to be hard to predict but not for George Bullock, a Sixth Form student at King's Bruton, Somerset. He accurately predicted the outcome of the election, correctly calling the final outcome in every state.
His mother wrote: 'What struck me the most about this little achievement was that he saw the secret of his success should not be governed by his own preference, but by scientific variables, mixed with poll predictions. It seemed a strikingly obvious way to go about it, but not the one many political pundits followed.'
Standing in front of the Stars and Stripes, George explained how he had reached his verdict. 'I came to the conclusion by evaluating which states were swing states and which states were solidly Democrat or Republican. States in the western Midwest (Texas, Arizona, Montana Missouri) I Knew would vote for the Republicans as well as the southern states (Georgia, Alabama, North Carolina etc.) whilst I knew that states along the West Coast and New England would defiantly vote for the Democrats.
'To get the result, I looked at the remainder of the swing states and examined demographic changes (especially in the Hispanic and African American communities as these tend to vote Democrat), past voting records in recent elections (for Congress, governors, the Senate and presidents). I also looked at opinion polls in the lead up to the election state by state. '